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How young people affect UK general election polls

About 46.9 million people have registered to vote at more than 40,000 polling stations across the country. The polls will be open until 10 p.m. local time, with results expected to begin rolling in within an hour or so a

about 46.9 million people have registered to vote at more than 40,000 polling stations across the country. The polls will be open until 10 p.m. local time, with results expected to begin rolling in within an hour or so after voting finishes.

Mark Leftly, deputy political editor of Britain's Guardian newspaper, shared his opinions on the polls with CGTN.

A large voter turnout is likely to be beneficial to Labor

How young people affect UK general election polls

Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn addresses supporters during an election campaign rally in Watford on June 7, 2017. /VCG Photo

"Jeremy Corbyn reaches demographics, notably 18-24 year olds, that few leaders in recent political memory have been able to reach and inspire. This demographic tends to overstate its intention to vote, so a relatively low voter turnout of below 70 or even 60 percent as we have seen in the past four elections is likely to hand advantage to the Conservatives, whose older base demographics tend to come out and vote no matter what."

The more young people vote, the more likely it is that Corbyn will win

Leftly predicted, "The more young people vote, the greater the likelihood that Jeremy Corbyn will have a good day, though even then we should be cautious in our expectations for Labour given the Conservatives' substantial average poll lead."

But he also said, "Young people tend to sway individual seats in areas of high youth concentration, notably university towns but their overall impact on elections is less than older demographics."

A recent ICM poll for anti-racism group Hope Not Hate showed 63 percent of young people were "absolutely certain" to vote, Leftly noted.

If this is to be believed, this would be unusually high. Two-thirds of those planning to vote would back Labour. This could mean 18-24 year olds could sway close seats where their vote has historically been marginal.

How young people affect UK general election polls

Theresa May, UK prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party, gestures while speaking at a general-election campaign event in Slough, UK on June 6, 2017. /VCG Photo

The "gray" vote – over 65s – are typically four times more likely to vote than young people.

"If this correlation holds up, particularly given the UK is an aging population, the Conservatives will be very happy," according to Leftly.

 

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